- A “leaked” Israeli report warns that Turkey is Israel’s top threat.
- Israel is pushing the USA to keep Russian bases as a check on Ankara’s influence.
- Turkey’s goals: crushing Kurdish autonomy, entrenching military influence in Syria, and externalizing domestic discontent.
- The U.S. faces a dilemma where a NATO partner and Israel move toward conflict.
- Russia uses Syrian bases to destabilize Africa.
In a move that underscores the dramatic realignment of Middle Eastern alliances, Israel has quietly urged the U.S. to allow Russian military bases to remain in Syria. Behind this unorthodox request lies a stark Israeli assessment: Ankara’s expanding influence in Syria now poses a greater strategic threat than Iran’s fading proxy network.
The Nagel Committee’s Dire Warning: Turkey as Israel’s Next Major Adversary
A confidential report, prepared by the Nagel Committee (an Israeli committee advising the government on its defense budget) was “accidentally” leaked. It delivered a strategic reassessment: A Turkish-dominated Syria could become “a more significant threat to Israel’s security than Iran.”
The report urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prepare for potential direct military confrontation with Turkey! The same week the European Commission urged EU member states to prepare for a potential Russian attack on EU territory. Did I point out that Turkey is a NATO member? (BTW, a NATO member that was only admitted for its strategic location close to the Soviet Union during the Cold War…)
Why Israel Wants Russia to Stay: A Strategic Buffer
Faced with this perceived threat, Israel made a pragmatic calculation: keep Russian forces in Syria as a counterweight to Turkey. Iran already gave all it had in its Operation True Promise and Israel didn’t even blink, so that assessment might not be entirely wrong.
In parallel, Israel resumed operations in the Gaza Strip, which shattered the fragile truce signed with Hamas and made Syria and Lebanon regular targets of Israeli airstrikes.
The Turkish objective?
Turkey’s primary objective is dismantling Kurdish self-rule in northern Syria by integrating them into the central government. Turkey has maintained a string of military bases across northern Syria for years. Now, with Damascus seeking Turkish cooperation, Ankara is poised to position itself as Syria’s de facto security guarantor.
So far we have seen that the establishment of Turkish military bases in Syria, expanding access to its airspace, and participating in the training of Syria’s new army are central to these developments. These steps reflect Ankara’s drive to fill the vacuum left by Moscow and Tehran’s waning influence in the region.
An Israel-Turkey rivalry puts Washington in an impossible bind:
Turkey is a NATO member and Israel is America’s long-term ally in the Middle East, with deep military and intelligence ties.
How Russia Uses Its Syrian Bases to Destabilize Africa
Israel’s push to keep Russian bases in Syria not only disregards the deep resentment many Syrians feel toward Moscow for propping up Assad’s brutal regime but also dismisses the darker role these bases play in exporting instability to Africa.
Russia’s Syrian Bases: A Launchpad for African Destabilization
Since securing its military foothold in Syria, Russia has used the country as a strategic hub for expanding influence in Africa. Russia’s Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval facility serve as transit points for weapons and fighters (Wagner or African Corps) heading to Libya, Mali, Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea and so on. These mercenaries prop up military juntas, suppress rebellions, and extract resources (gold, diamonds, uranium) in exchange for political leverage.
This is geopolitics on a whole new level – what’s next?
And let’s not forget. The recent arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu – President Erdoğan’s most promising political rival – has ignited Turkey’s largest protests in over a decade, sending the lira plunging 12% in a single week.
Let’s hope Erdoğan doesn’t pull a Putin and manufacture an external crisis. A war with Israel would prove dangerously tempting – it could unite Middle Eastern publics behind his banner as the region’s only independent Muslim leader standing against Western proxies, while Arab regimes quietly seethe at this upstart Turk stealing their anti-Israeli mantle. For a strongman bleeding domestic support, such nationalist adrenaline might look like the perfect antidote… until the body count starts.
And let’s hope Trump can’t be persuaded and has the Russians kicked out of Syria.
