When Germany’s early federal election was announced on November 7, 2024, for February 23, 2025, authorities anticipated Russian interference. German intelligence promptly established a special task force to guard against cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns—the Kremlin’s known playbook. However, what unfolded in the election’s final weeks suggests Moscow may have deployed a more audacious tactic: fake “Islamist attacks” to increase islamophobic sentiment in Germany to help pro-russian political parties.
Between December 2024 and February 2025, Germany experienced an unprecedented cluster of attacks initially framed as Islamist terrorism but which upon investigation revealed troubling inconsistencies:
Magdeburg Christmas Market Attack (December 20, 2024)
A Saudi-born doctor rammed his car into the Christmas market, killing six and injuring over 300. While initial reports suggested Islamist motives, investigators found:
- The perpetrator was actually an ex-Muslim who had left the faith years earlier
- No connections to any extremist networks
- Motive appeared to be purely personal frustration
- Had been undergoing psychiatric treatment for depression
- No evidence of planning or political statements
Aschaffenburg Park Knife Attack (January 22, 2025)
An Afghan migrant stabbed multiple victims in a park, including two children. Key details:
- Attacked a kindergarten group at random
- Victims included Moroccan and Syrian children
- Had pending deportation order but no extremist ties
- Known to local mental health services
- Left no manifesto or political statements
Munich Demonstration Attack (February 13, 2025)
An Afghan immigrant drove into a trade union protest, killing two. Investigation revealed:
- Perpetrator was a fitness influencer with contradictory online persona
- Social media showed both Islamic content and music videos
- No history of radicalization or extremist contacts
- Had been granted residence permit after completing job training
- Bodybuilding champion with large social media following
Berlin Holocaust Memorial Stabbing (February 21, 2025)
A Syrian teen attacked a Spanish tourist just two days before elections. Notable aspects:
- Victim was Spanish
- Suspect known for petty crimes but no extremist links
- No evidence of antisemitic activity prior to attack
Why These Weren’t Genuine Islamist Attacks:
- The Saudi doctor wasn’t even Muslim
- No terrorist organization claimed responsibility (and showing their might is half their goal)
- Almost complete absence of Islamic symbolism or rhetoric
- No links of the perpetrators to terror networks
- Some victims—a Moroccan girl, a Syrian child, a Spaniard—don’t point toward Islamism
- The perpetrators seemed mentally troubled, not radicalized Islamists—exactly the profile of vulnerable individuals intelligence services might recruit for false flag operations.
Cui Bono?
The timing was conspicuously precise. With attacks concentrated in the 10-week run-up to voting, each incident:
- Coincided with key political debates on migration policy
- Was amplified by suspicious social media activity
- Boosted polling numbers for the Russia-friendly AfD
While conclusive evidence remains classified:
- Russian disinformation campaigns regarding the elections were confirmed
- Some individuals were allegedly paid by Russia for painting anti-leftist slogans on election posters
This episode reveals a potential evolution in hybrid warfare—where actual violence replaces mere propaganda, and mental health crises become weapons. For democracies, it presents a grim new challenge: how to defend against attacks that may be simultaneously genuine crimes and geopolitical provocations.